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School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

 

Course: Decision Science

 

Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination

 

 

1.    Nemi Mehta is owning 50 Hectares of land near Junagadh. On his Farm, he cultivates Giloy, which is a medicinal plant in Ayurveda. The below-given table shows the sales of ‘Giloy Vati’ that his team is preparing as per one Ayurveda script (book), and the amount they spend on the Advertisement of it.

 

NMIMS Global Access

 

School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

 

Course: Decision Science

 

Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination

 

Nemi’s problem is to analyze the effect of Advertisement on sales. Firstly, He wants to understand the presence of a linear relationship between the sales and ‘amount spent in advertisement’. He also wants to run a correlation and regression to know whether he should keep spending money on Advertisements or not. If sales figures are not affected by advertisement, he should not spend money on it.

 

So, take the EXCEL output of the following and write the interpretation.

 

·         Appropriate type of Graph which can exhibit the linear relation b/w variables.

 

·         Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient

 

·         Regression Analysis

 

·         Graph that shows predicted v/s actual sales figures.

 

	Sales	Advertising
Region code		(TV spots per
	(INR 000s)
		month) (in INR, 000s)
1	260.3	5
2	286.1	7
3	279.4	6
4	410.8	9
5	438.2	12
6	315.3	8
7	565.1	11
8	570.0	16
9	426.1	13
10	315.0	7
11	403.6	10
12	220.5	4
13	343.6	9
14	644.6	17
15	520.4	19
16	329.5	9
17	426.0	11
18	343.2	8
19	450.4	13
20	421.8	14

 

 

(10 Marks)

 

NMIMS Global Access

 

School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

 

Course: Decision Science

 

Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination

 

 

2.    The table given below is the ‘single year age population’ (taken from census 2011).

 

This table shows the population of people (age-wise) living in Leh at the time of the census 2011 survey. Transform this ungrouped data into Grouped data by forming age groups (only five age groups), and then find out Mean, Variance, Standard deviation, Ogive, and Histogram. Write the summary based on your calculations.

Age		Age		Age		Age		Age
in	Populati	in	Populati	in	Populati	in	Populati	in	Populati
Yea	on	Yea	on	Yea	on	Yea	on	Yea	on
rs		rs		rs		rs		rs
		11	1998	22	2839	33	2696	44	1652
1	1958	12	1916	23	2935	34	2781	45	1806
2	1725	13	2138	24	3601	35	2799	46	1460
3	1814	14	2139	25	4110	36	2450	47	1226
4	1768	15	2096	26	4089	37	2142	48	1225
5	1871	16	2044	27	3716	38	2114	49	1006
6	1888	17	2027	28	3702	39	1725	50	1454
7	1768	18	2065	29	3084	40	2218
8	1712	19	2013	30	3475	41	1802
9	1780	20	2459	31	2844	42	1751
10	1862	21	2594	32	2684	43	1659

 

 

Source: Data.Gov.in

 

(10 Marks)

 

 

3.a. The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4

 

NMIMS Global Access

 

School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

 

Course: Decision Science

 

Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination

 

millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?

SUBDIVISION	YEAR	ANNUAL (in MM)
Gujarat Region	1997	1068.9
Gujarat Region	1998	1070
Gujarat Region	1999	568.4
Gujarat Region	2000	550.6
Gujarat Region	2001	849
Gujarat Region	2002	637.2
Gujarat Region	2003	1160.3
Gujarat Region	2004	1005.8
Gujarat Region	2005	1316.4
Gujarat Region	2006	1478
Gujarat Region	2007	1178.9
Gujarat Region	2008	911.1
Gujarat Region	2009	641.6
Gujarat Region	2010	1088.7
Gujarat Region	2011	890.5
Gujarat Region	2012	714
Gujarat Region	2013	1118.6
Gujarat Region	2014	705.7
Gujarat Region	2015	622.9
Gujarat Region	2016	764.9

 

Source: Data.Gov.in

 

(5 Marks)

 

NMIMS Global Access

 

School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

 

Course: Decision Science

 

Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination

 

 

3.b. A new gas-electric hybrid car has recently hit the market. The distance traveled on 1 gallon of fuel is normally distributed with a mean of 65 miles and a standard deviation of 4 miles. Find the probability of the following events. (show the concerned region by z curve)

 

1.      The car travels more than 70 miles per gallon.

 

2.      The car travels less than 60 miles per gallon.

 

3.      The car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon.

 

(5 Marks)

 

 

 

 

 

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