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Business
Statistics
April
2021 Examination
Question 1) Nemi Mehta is
owning 50 Hectares of land near Junagadh. On his Farm, he cultivates Giloy,
which is a medicinal plant in Ayurveda. The below-given table shows the sales
of ‘Giloy Vati’ that his team is preparing as per one Ayurveda script (book),
and the amount they spend on the Advertisement of it.
Nemi’s problem is to analyze
the effect of Advertisement on sales. Firstly, He wants to understand the
presence of a linear relationship between the sales and ‘amount spent in
advertisement’. He also wants to run a correlation and regression to know
whether he should keep spending money on Advertisements or not. If sales
figures are not affected by advertisement, he should not spend money on it. So,
Calculate Karl Person’s correlation, Regression Model (with bo and b1),
R-square, ANOVA Table. Also, provide EXCEL- Generated Output Along with your
calculations.
Region code |
Sales (1NR 000s) |
Advertising (TV
spots per month) (in INR, 000s) |
1 |
260.3 |
5 |
2 |
286.1 |
7 |
3 |
279.4 |
6 |
4 |
410.8 |
9 |
5 |
438.2 |
12 |
6 |
315.3 |
8 |
7 |
565.1 |
11 |
8 |
570.0 |
16 |
9 |
426.1 |
13 |
10 |
315.0 |
7 |
11 |
403.6 |
10 |
12 |
220.5 |
4 |
13 |
343.6 |
9 |
14 |
644.6 |
17 |
15 |
520.4 |
19 |
16 |
329.5 |
9 |
17 |
426.0 |
11 |
18 |
343.2 |
8 |
19 |
450.4 |
13 |
20 |
421.8 |
14 |
Ans 1.
To find Karl Person’s
correlation the following calculations are need to be done.
Now,
for regression output Excel has been used. Since,
Question 2) The table given
below is the ‘single year age population’ (taken from census 2011). This table
shows the population of people (age-wise) living in Leh at the time of the
census 2011 survey. Transform this ungrouped data into Grouped data by forming
age groups then find out Mean, Median, Variance, Standard deviation, Ogive, and
Histogram. Write the summary based on your calculations.
Age in Years |
Population |
Age in Years |
Population |
Age in Years |
Population |
Age in Years |
Population |
Age in Years |
Population |
0 |
992 |
11 |
1998 |
22 |
2839 |
33 |
2696 |
44 |
1652 |
1 |
1958 |
12 |
1916 |
23 |
2935 |
34 |
2781 |
45 |
1806 |
2 |
1725 |
13 |
2138 |
24 |
3601 |
35 |
2799 |
46 |
1460 |
3 |
1814 |
14 |
2139 |
25 |
4110 |
36 |
2450 |
47 |
1226 |
4 |
1768 |
15 |
2096 |
26 |
4089 |
37 |
2142 |
48 |
1225 |
5 |
1871 |
16 |
2044 |
27 |
3716 |
38 |
2114 |
49 |
1006 |
6 |
1888 |
17 |
2027 |
28 |
3702 |
39 |
1725 |
50 |
1454 |
7 |
1768 |
18 |
2065 |
29 |
3084 |
40 |
2218 |
||
8 |
1712 |
19 |
2013 |
30 |
3475 |
41 |
1802 |
||
9 |
1780 |
20 |
2459 |
31 |
2844 |
42 |
1751 |
||
10 |
1862 |
21 |
2594 |
32 |
2684 |
43 |
1659 |
Ans 2.
To transform the given data from ungrouped to grouped
data. Consider we want 6 age groups then we need to find class width. The class
width is equal to range divided by number of classes. Now, to find range the
minimum value inage column is 0 and maximum value is 50.
Since, Range = Maximum – Minimum hence, it becomes
Range = 50 – 0 = 50
Now, the class width = Range/6 = 50/6 = 8.33.Hence, by
rounding to whole
a) Mean
b)
Median
c) Variance
The standard deviation is nothing but square root of
variance.
d) Standard
deviation
e) Ogive
(Cumulative frequency graph)
Based on
the data provided, we can construct the cumulative frequencies associated to
each class, by adding all the frequencies up to that class, or equivalently,
Question
3a) The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall
using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available
from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the
rainfall for the year 2017. To know, the extent the prediction is correct the
actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4 millimeters) is provided. Find out which alpha
values among the three suggestions are near to accurate value?
|
|
|
SUBDIVISION |
YEAR |
ANNUAL (in MM) |
Gujarat Region |
1997 |
1068.9 |
Gujarat Region |
1998 |
1070 |
Gujarat Region |
1999 |
568.4 |
Gujarat Region |
2000 |
550.6 |
Gujarat Region |
2001 |
849 |
Gujarat Region |
2002 |
637.2 |
Gujarat Region |
2003 |
1160.3 |
Gujarat Region |
2004 |
1005.8 |
Gujarat Region |
2005 |
1316.4 |
Gujarat Region |
2006 |
1478 |
Gujarat Region |
2007 |
1178.9 |
Gujarat Region |
2008 |
911.1 |
Gujarat Region |
2009 |
641.6 |
Gujarat Region |
2010 |
1088.7 |
Gujarat Region |
2011 |
890.5 |
Gujarat Region |
2012 |
714 |
Gujarat Region |
2013 |
1118.6 |
Gujarat Region |
2014 |
705.7 |
Gujarat Region |
2015 |
622.9 |
Gujarat Region |
2016 |
764.9 |
Ans 3a.
For
The
exponential smoothing (ES) forecast with smoothing constant α=0.2 for the nth period is computed using the following
formula:
Fn=Fn−1+α(An−1−Fn−1)
Question 3b) A new gas-electric hybrid car has
recently hit the market. The distance traveled on 1 gallon of fuel is normally
distributed with a mean of 65 miles and a standard deviation of 4 miles. Find
the probability of the following events. (show the concerned region by z curve)
1. The car travels more than 70 miles per gallon.
2. The car travels less than 60 miles per gallon.
3. The car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon.
Ans 3b.
It is given that the distance travelled
on 1 gallon of fuel is normally distributed with a mean of 65 miles and a
standard deviation of 4 miles. In symbolic form the mean and standard deviation
are
And
a)
To
find the probability that car travels more than 70 miles per
b) To find the probability that car
travels less than 60 miles per gallon i.e. P(X <60)
c) To find probability that the
car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon i.e. P (55 < X < 70)
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